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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal Hari ini' started by Pas, Nov 25, 2013.

  1. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.25 :Forex News: Resistance ahead – a potential turning point

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Friday’s main market mover was the German IFO Business Climate which came out with a better than anticipated value, strengthening the intraday uptrend and taking price almost 100 pips higher.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Recent price action created resistance around 1.3570 area and this will be the pair’s next potential turning point. The rally seen during the last couple of trading days is very likely to retrace lower even if afterwards price will continue to the upside. At the moment the move up is overextended so we anticipate either a consolidation period or a move to the downside.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Europe doesn’t release any economic indicators today and the only US event is the release of the Pending Home Sales scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and anticipated to increase from the previous -5.6% to 2.2%. A higher than expected value suggests a thriving economy, where people are more willing to spend money for purchasing a house and usually this strengthens the US Dollar.

    GBP/USD

    Similar to the Euro, the Pound strengthened against the greenback during Friday’s trading session and continued to move above 1.6115 resistance, towards 1.6250.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair struggled for quite a while to break the resistance located at 1.6115 and it finally succeeded to do so last week. The next target is likely to be the resistance located at 1.6250 which is also the upper band of the horizontal channel which confined price for more than two months. If price reaches the mentioned level and breaks it to the upside, we may witness the end of the ranging period; otherwise, the pair may be headed for 1.6115 once again.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The only notable UK event of the day is the release of the Mortgage Approvals scheduled at 09:30 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous 43.0K to 45.2K. This is not usually a high-impact indicator but if the actual number is surprisingly different than anticipated, the market will probably react strongly.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  2. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.26 : The Forex Market: Bullish momentum fades away?

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: Yesterday the market had unidirectional movement for almost the entire session and we witnessed a much needed retracement after the strong bullish moves seen last week.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    It appears as last week’s bullish momentum is starting to fade away as the pair failed to even touch the resistance located at 1.3570 and started to move to the downside. Of course another push higher is not out of the question and we cannot determine at the moment if the latest bearish move was just a retracement or a full scale reversal of the uptrend seen last week on the lower time frames. The day’s important levels from a four hour chart perspective remain 1.3570 as resistance and 1.3450 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The US Building Permits are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to increase from the previous 926K to 940K, a fact which would signal increased economic activity, especially in the construction sector. However, the more important indicator is the US Consumer Confidence which will be announced at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending and its value is based on the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding the current economic situation. The expected figure is 72.2, an increase from the previous 71.2 and better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

    GBP/USD

    The Pound weakened yesterday as the Mortgage Approvals numbers dropped, showing a contraction or at least a stall in United Kingdom’s economic activity. However, no major levels were broken during yesterday’s fall.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair continues to be confined inside the horizontal channel formed between 1.6250 resistance and 1.5915 support. Although on the lower time frames it appears like trends are in place, from a longer time frame perspective the pair is just ranging and this suggests that 1.5915 is the next target. Of course, we don’t expect this level to be reached today because the distance is too big to be traveled in one day, but it is possible that 1.6115 will be reached.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today at 10:00 am GMT the UK Inflation Report Hearings take place and during these meetings BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and the economic situation before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. His speeches are always potential market movers and his attitude during the hearings may generate strong moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  3. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.27 :Forex News:The Bulls are testing resistance again. Bounce or break

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s better than expected numbers for the US Building Permits briefly strengthened the US Dollar but soon after the pair resumed its upward movement and the resistance located at 1.3570 was touched.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    During yesterday’s trading session, 1.3570 resistance was touched twice and each time price failed to move above it, suggesting that lower moves are possible today. However, a break of resistance will probably bring in additional buyers and the uptrend will be resumed. If price moves higher, the market will probably become overbought on an hourly and even four hour chart so false breaks of resistance may occur.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day is the announcement of the US Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to decrease from the previous value of 3.8% to -1.5%. More orders for durable goods suggest a higher consumer confidence regarding the economic situation as such goods require a larger investment from the buyer. If the actual value is higher than anticipated, the Dollar may strengthen and the pair can move lower.

    GBP/USD

    During the Inflation Report Hearings, hawkish comments made by Governor Mark Carney strengthened the Pound, taking the pair higher and determining the main direction for the day.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair is still ranging but the buyers seem to have more strength than the sellers. However at the moment neither bulls nor bears are in control and almost all moves in one direction are reversed the next day. Out bias is neutral on the pair, waiting for a touch of the resistance located at 1.6250 or the support located at 1.6115.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 09:30 am GMT the UK Gross Domestic Product is released; this is the broadest measure of an economy’s performance and higher numbers strengthen the currency. For today’s release no change is anticipated from the previous 0.8%.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  4. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.28 :The Forex Market:Can the buyers sustain price above resistance

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: The Euro strengthened yesterday against the greenback as German politicians reached an accord regarding wages without increasing taxes and as a result the pair moved above 1.3570 resistance.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Although the resistance was broken, the pair started to move to the downside, finishing close to yesterday’s opening price. This price movement created a pin candle on the Daily charts which is a sign of rejection; possible moves to the downside may follow, proving that yesterday’s move above resistance is just a false break. If price continues to the upside, 1.3570 will become support but at the moment price is hovering close to this level so the picture is not very clear.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 1:30 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out with an expected increase from the previous -2.0% to 0.1%. Since this is the primary gauge for consumer inflation, higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. US Banks will be closed celebrating Thanksgiving Day so the US session will probably be characterized by low volatility.

    GBP/USD

    The release of the UK Gross Domestic Product which met expectations was perceived extremely bullish by market participants and the result was a break of the horizontal channel to the upside.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair had an extremely bullish day yesterday, traveling almost 140 pips to the upside but it also retraced during the second part of the day, creating a long wick in the upper side of the daily candle. The retracement could be a re-test of the broken channel or a sign that the initial break was a false one. At the moment we cannot consider the break to be a true one although the momentum belongs to the bulls.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day is Mark Carney’s speech related to the UK Financial Stability Report. Both the report and the speech take place at 10:30 am GMT and volatility is expected, especially because the Governor will probably talk about the stability of the current monetary system and make an assessment of potential risks.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  5. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.29 : Forex News: Market direction affected by economic indicators

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro gained yesterday against the greenback as the German CPI showed an increase, exceeding analysts’ predictions and as a result, the pair traded the entire day above support.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The level of 1.3570 has turned now into support after being re-tested from above and successfully pushing price higher. Yesterday’s price action created a resistance zone around 1.3610 and this will be the first barrier in front of rising prices. On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is very close to the overbought territory so we might see retracements lower especially if the 70 level of the indicator will be surpassed.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales numbers come out with an anticipated increase from the previous -0.6% to 0.5%, a fact which would probably trigger further Euro strength and higher prices for the pair. Later in the day, at 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate is announced and anticipated to slightly increase from the previous 0.7% to 0.8%. Since the Consumer Price Index is the Euro Zone’s main inflation gauge, higher than anticipated values will probably take the pair higher.

    GBP/USD
    The bulls continued to dominate the market and Governor Mark Carney’s speech pushed the Pound higher against the US Dollar, consolidating previous gains.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The level of 1.6250 was almost touched from above, resulting in a bounce higher and turning it into support. The pair is clearly under bulls’ control and 1.6380 seems to be the next target but the Relative Strength Index is already signaling an overbought condition of the market so we consider a break of this level less likely to happen today.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 09:30 am GMT the United Kingdom will announce the Net Lending to Individuals which is expected to increase from the previous 1.9B to 2.1B. The net lending is correlated with consumer spending and confidence because people spend more when they feel confident about the economic conditions. Higher numbers than anticipated usually strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  6. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.02 :Forex News: Bullish momentum declines in front of strong resistance

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The mixed values of the economic data which came out didn’t create the expected volatility and Friday was a surprisingly slow day, with price moving in a 40 pip narrow range. The strongest move of the day came late in the trading session and consisted in a drop towards support.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Friday’s price action created minor resistance at 1.3620 and price started to move towards 1.3570 which was already re-tested from above so now it can be considered support. If during the day the pair will touch the mentioned level and bounce higher, we consider 1.3620 to be the first target. Today is a busier day than usual in terms of economic and data so price action will be influenced by the fundamental side of the market.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak today at the National College Fed Challenge in Washington DC. His public speeches often trigger strong moves and we recommend caution if trading at the time; the speech is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released and expected to decrease from the previous value of 56.4 to 55.2. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, better than expected figures usually strengthen the greenback and take the pair lower.

    GBP/USD

    Friday the Pound continued to strengthen against the US Dollar and the pair made its first encounter since the beginning of the year with the crucial level located at 1.6380.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Price is currently trading near a very important level which represents a two-year high. It is unlikely to see a break of such a powerful level on the first attempt; usually price stalls or even retraces when strong levels are reached, unless an important economic or financial event pushes it right through. On top of that, the four -hour Relative Strength Index signals an overbought condition and this makes us believe that a break of 1.6380 will not occur today.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Pound will be affected today by the release of the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 600 managers from the manufacturing sector and which acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The release is scheduled at 09:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 56.5 while the previous value was 56.0. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  7. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.03 : The Forex Market: The door is open for a shift of power

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: The pair started its descent yesterday on the back of a better than expected US Manufacturing PMI which came out with a value of 57.3 compared with the forecast of 55.2. The US Dollar strengthened as a result and the pair broke support.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The support located at 1.3570 was broken by a strong four hour candle which went right through it, making us believe this is a true break and lower prices will follow. A re-test from below of the broken level is very possible and if that happens, price behavior will show if the break was indeed real or fake. The first support is located at 1.3450 at the moment and the level of 1.3570 may provide resistance although it is not confirmed yet.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today is slow in terms of economic data and no major releases are scheduled by either the US or the Euro Zone. Price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by any unscheduled news which may come out.

    GBP/USD

    Early Monday morning the pair spiked above 1.6380 and a new high was printed. However, the move couldn’t be sustained and the bears took price below 1.6380 quickly after and this drop couldn’t be reversed even by a better than anticipated UK Manufacturing PMI.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The move above 1.6380 couldn’t be sustained and now we are anticipating a touch from below of this level, followed by lower prices. However the pair might continue on a bearish path even if price doesn’t return first to the mentioned level. If price moves to the upside, it will probably encounter resistance around 1.6442 which is the new high and also the point from where the pair reversed yesterday.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Pound will be affected today by the release of the UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index which is scheduled at 09:30 am GMT. The forecast figure is 59.3 and the previous value was 59.4; since this is a leading indicator of Construction activity and economic health, better than expected numbers normally strengthen the Pound.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  8. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.11.04 :Forex News: Resistance holds – lower prices expected

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The predicted shift of power didn’t occur yesterday but the bulls didn’t manage either to make substantial advances. A Spanish report related to unemployment showed much better than anticipated results and this strengthened the Euro, generating a totally bullish day.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair moved back above 1.3570 so the re-test from below of this level failed and neither side is in control from a four hour chart perspective. However, rising prices have resistance ahead, located at 1.3620, a level which is very close to current price. If a bounce lower occurs, the level of 1.3570 will be the first barrier in front of falling prices and in case it is broken once more to the downside, the next support will be located at 1.3525.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The most important event of the day for the single currency is the release of the Euro Zone Retail Sales, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.6% to 0.2%, a fact which would strengthen the Euro, taking the pair higher. At the same time the Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.1%.

    The United States will release at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment Change which is a report created by a privately owned company, not the US Government. However, this report usually offers hints about the Government employment data which comes out 2 days later and has the potential to be a strong market mover; the forecast is 172K and the previous was 130K. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales are announced, giving an insight into the housing market and acting as a gauge of economic health. The expected figure is 432K and a higher number usually brings the pair lower on the back of US Dollar strength.

    GBP/USD

    Yesterday’s British Construction PMI was much better than anticipated and as a result the pair had another close encounter with the level of 1.6440.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.6440 could not be broken even if UK data came out better than anticipated and this offers us hints about the weakening of the uptrend. We can notice a double top pattern on the four hour chart which is a very powerful bearish formation and this offers more strength to the level of 1.6440. We anticipate a move to the downside, with 1.6380 being the first target.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 09:30 am GMT the UK releases the Services PMI which is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health. The expected value is 62.1, a small decrease from the previous 62.5 and usually better than anticipated figures strengthen the Pound. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  9. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.05 : The Forex Market: Technical analysis overshadowed by the release of Interest Rates

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: The ADP Non Farm Employment report came out much better than anticipated yesterday and this strengthened the US Dollar, driving the pair lower. But soon after the release, the Euro recovered and brought the pair back up, close to the point where the drop begun.

    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer any clues about future short term direction. As we could see, the pair displayed a “V” shaped pattern on an hourly chart after 1.3525 was almost touched. Lately the level of 1.3570 is broken with ease and price doesn’t seem to respect it much so today’s most important levels will be 1.3620 as resistance and 1.3525 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The fundamental side of the market will be the most important today and S/R levels will probably be broken at the time of the ECB Press Conference which follows the Interest Rate decision. The Euro Zone Interest Rate is not expected to change from the current 0.25% and probably the market will react stronger to Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers during the Press Conference than to the actual rate release. Almost always this event creates very strong volatility and sharp moves. The Interest Rate will be announced at 12:45 pm GMT and the Press Conference is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. At the same time of 1:30 pm GMT the US Gross Domestic Product is announced, showing the economy’s overall performance. The forecast is a small increase from the previous 2.8% to 3.0% and if it comes true, we might see US Dollar strength,

    GBP/USD

    The Pound dropped below 1.6380, on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the Services PMI, but recovered later in the day and the trading session was characterized by mixed movement.


    Technical Outlook
    At the moment the pair is re-testing from below the level of 1.6380 and the result is very important for medium term price direction. If the level holds and turns once again into resistance, we will probably see an extended move to the south, probably towards 1.6250. A move back above this level will make 1.6440 the first target for the bulls. Today’s important financial events will overshadow the technical aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook
    It’s an important day for the Pound as the Interest Rate will be announced at 12:00 pm GMT. Although no change is expected from the current value of 0.50%, the event is considered a market mover and volatility is anticipated. At the same time the Asset Purchase Facility value will be announced, showing the amount of money the Bank of England will create in order to purchase assets in the market with the purpose of stabilizing the currency. Lower values are perceived as beneficial for the Pound. Of course the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  10. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.06 :Forex News: Today’s headline – the US Non Farm Employment report

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the Euro strengthened and the pair rose to a 5-week high on the back of hawkish comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi who gave no indication about introducing a negative deposit rate and also refrained from adding further monetary stimulus.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    After an initial move to the down side, the pair rallied and the resistance located at 1.3620 was broken decisively. It appears as the control belongs to the bulls once again and 1.3710 might be the next target which may be touched even without a re-test of the broken resistance. The fundamental side of the market continues to hold center stage today and the technical aspect will be secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day is represented by the release of the US Non Farm Employment report which is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is the most anticipated report regarding the US employment situation and has a huge impact on the market almost always. Today’s expected value is 180K, a substantial decrease from the previous month’s 204K. Worse than expected numbers usually affect negatively the US Dollar and drive the pair higher.

    The US Consumer Confidence report will be announced later in the day, at 2:55 pm GMT, with an anticipated value of 76.2, a small increase from the previous 75.1. Consumer confidence is strongly related to consumer spending so better than anticipated numbers for today’s release will be beneficial for the greenback.

    GBP/USD

    The pair briefly moved above the resistance located at 1.6380 and then continued to the down side for almost the entire day. The United States announced better than expected data yesterday and this had a stronger impact on the Pound than on the Euro.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The break below 1.6380 is a sign of uptrend weakness and shows an increased possibility for the pair to touch the next support located at 1.6250. However, the power of the bulls must not be underestimated and moves into 1.6380 are a distinct possibility as well. A lot depends on the US Non Farm Employment report and an accurate technical prediction is hard to make.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom doesn’t release any high impact data today so all eyes will be on the US events mentioned earlier which will almost certainly have a strong impact on the pair.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  11. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.09 : The Forex market: Euro Group Meetings – a reason for volatility

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: Friday’s better than expected US Non Farm Employment data initially brought the pair lower but positive Euro sentiment generated by Mario Draghi’s comments made Thursday hindered an extended move south. As a result, the pair had a bullish day and important resistance was touched.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    After a perfect touch of the support located at 1.3620 price started to move to the upside, solidifying the control of the bulls, but now important resistance sits in front of higher prices: 1.3710 which was the previous high of the year. On a four hour chart we notice the Relative Strength Index is approaching the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition of the market and this makes a break of resistance less likely although not impossible.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 11:00 am GMT the German Industrial Production numbers will be released, showing the change in the total output generated by the Industrial sector. The expected figure is 0.8%, a hefty increase from the previous -0.9%. Better than expected numbers show increased industrial activity and usually drive the pair higher. The Euro Group meetings take place today, attended by important personalities of the financial and political scene. This may translate into volatility and hard to trade movements, depending on the matters discussed.

    GBP/USD

    The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound at the time of the Non Farm Employment report release but soon after, the pair moved up, touching resistance before moving south once again. As a result, Friday’s trading session was very difficult for intraday traders.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.6380 was touched Friday but a swift bounce lower occurred shortly after. This proves the power of this resistance level and gives us hints about future price direction which appears to be down. However, another touch of 1.6380 is not out of the question as a downtrend is not established and first support is located at 1.6320.

    Fundamental Outlook
    In the second part of the day, at 5:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Economic Club of New York and usually strong moves are seen during his speeches so we recommend caution if trading at the time. No economic indicators are released by the United Kingdom and we expect a quiet trading session, at least until Mark Carney’s speech.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  12. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.10 : Forex News:The bulls refuse to give up control

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The pair moved at a very slow pace yesterday and no major developments took place as volatility remained low for almost the entire day and price moved in a 50 pip range.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Although the session was very slow, the pair crawled above the resistance located at 1.3710 but we don’t consider this to be a decisive break which will generate additional moves to the upside. Price seems undecided about the next direction and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is signaling an overbought condition which may trigger a retracement lower. However, the uptrend is still intact and a successful re-test of the broken level may result in higher prices.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The day is pretty slow in terms of economic indicators released by the Euro Zone or the United States and the most important event is represented by the ECOFIN meetings which will be attended by Finance Ministers of the EU member states. Although the meetings are closed to the press, sometimes officials speak to journalists during the day and an official statement will be released once the meetings have concluded.

    GBP/USD

    The pair experienced a strong bullish day, with price moving steadily to the upside after a close encounter with support which generated a clear break of the resistance located at 1.6380.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition of the market and 1.6440 resistance is sitting in front of rising prices. This makes us believe that a retracement will occur if price touches this level while the overbought condition is still valid. However, a break above resistance would renew the uptrend, bringing in additional buyers.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The UK Manufacturing Production is announced today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 1.2% to 0.4%. Lower numbers suggest diminished economic activity and may weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be released; the previous value was 0.7% and estimates above this value may strengthen the bullish sentiment.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  13. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.11 : Forex News: Overextended prices call for a retracement

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The Euro maintained and even increased its gains against the US Dollar and we are experiencing the longest continuous rise in almost a year. Price is trading above 1.3710 and the yearly high located at 1.3832 is in jeopardy.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The break of 1.3710 resistance proved to be a real one and more bulls joined the rally, taking price even higher and although the Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition of the market, the pair keeps rising. Under normal circumstances we would anticipate a retracement lower but considering the latest strength shown by the Euro, we acknowledge the increased probability of a touch of the resistance located at 1.3830.

    Fundamental Outlook
    We have a very slow day ahead, with the single notable event being the release of the German Final Consumer Price Index. The event is scheduled at 07:00 am GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.2%; however, higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

    GBP/USD

    The pair had a rather slow day and price moved mostly sideways although the UK Gross Domestic Product Estimate came out better than anticipated.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.6440 is still holding even if it was tested several times during yesterday’s trading session. Price is moving above and below the mentioned level and the bullish rally seems exhausted. No major developments took place yesterday and this makes it hard to predict with accuracy the pair’s next move. Consequently, our sentiment is neutral on the pair but we slightly favor a retracement lover.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicators and we expect price direction to be mostly driven by technical factors.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  14. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.12 :The Forex Market: The day’s important events will shape market behavior

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: The Euro extended its gains for the seventh consecutive day against the US Dollar on a growing belief among market participants that ECB will not cut rates in the near future. However, yesterday’s advance wasn’t a strong one and resistance was not touched.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.3830 wasn’t threatened yesterday but price continues to trade higher and the overbought condition of the pair is still present. We consider 1.3830 a good place for the rally to stop and for price to move sideways or even reverse. However, today’s technical aspect will be secondary as we have a day full of news releases ahead.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The first important event of the day is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 08:00 am GMT. The President will talk about ECB policy at the European Parliament debate in Strasbourg, and the speech will most likely create volatility, as most of his public appearances do. An hour later the ECB will release the Monthly Bulletin containing the Banks viewpoint on current and future economic conditions and will also reveal the data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made.

    The United States will announce the Retail Sales at 1:30 pm GMT and since this is the most important gauge of consumer spending at a retail level, the release usually has a high impact on the market. Analysts expect a small increase from the previous 0.4% to 0.6%, a fact which could strengthen the greenback.

    GBP/USD

    The bears started to make their presence known yesterday and as a result the pair begun to fall below 1.6440, making a break of 1.6380 possible.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Although price moved slightly above the resistance located at 1.6440 during previous days, this proved to be a false break and the bulls ran out of steam, allowing price to fall. However, price is trading very close to the support located at 1.6380 and we cannot consider this level broken. If the pair chooses to move above support, it may revisit 1.6440 resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook
    United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by the technical aspect.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  15. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.13 :Forex News: A potentially ranging day due to lack of major events

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: After seven straight days of upward movement the pair finally started to retrace lower on the back of better than anticipated values of the US Retail Sales which strengthened the greenback.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The crucial resistance located at 1.3830 wasn’t touched before price started to move south, mostly because the drop was triggered by good US data; however, price was overextended and in need of a move lower. We anticipate the retracement to find support around 1.3710 but the uptrend is still intact and move to the upside are highly probable.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Producer Price Index which shows the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services. This is a leading indicator of consumer inflation because a higher price charged by producers will eventually generate a higher price paid by the client. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.0% while the previous was -0.2%; usually higher values strengthen the greenback.

    GBP/USD

    Better than expected US data strengthened the US Dollar against the Pound as well and the pair continued the descent started a day earlier. Although we had a couple of bearish days, neither bulls nor bears are in complete control from a four hour chart perspective.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s drop was stopped by the support level located at 1.6315 which proves once more to be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. Although the latest move was bearish, an extended drop is not highly probable considering the fact that lately the pair has been moving in a horizontal channel on the four hour chart so a bounce higher can occur as the bottom part of the channel was touched. However, a break of 1.6315 will probably trigger a move into 1.6250 support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so the direction of the pair will be influenced by the US event mentioned earlier and by technical factors.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  16. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.16 :The Forex Market: Mixed movement ahead of ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: Friday the bears maintained their short-term control and the pair continued to move to the downside, touching the support level located at 1.3710. However, price didn’t travel a huge distance and the day had no special events.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    For the moment the support located at 1.3710 is able to stop and even reject price higher as seen Friday and the uptrend is still strong, a fact which may trigger moves to the upside. On the other hand, the pair climbed for an extended period of time so it may need a bigger retracement lower before price can go higher, resuming the uptrend. If this is the case, 1.3710 will be broken to the downside today.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 08:30 am GMT, Germany will announce the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey derived from the opinions of about 500 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. The anticipated figure is 53.1, an increase from the previous 52.7. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers normally strengthen the Euro.

    The most significant event of the day will be ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The President will testify on monetary policy in front of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels and the event is likely to have a strong impact on the market, depending on his attitude. We recommend caution if you will be trading at the time.

    GBP/USD

    The pair moved below the support located at 1.6315 on the back of increased US optimism and the balance of power is starting to shift in favor of the bears.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The level located at 1.6315 is very important for the pair’s movement from a four hour chart perspective as it rejected price several times before being broken. This makes its break an important event and shows us the strength the US Dollar has compared to the Pound. Further price declines are possible and we expect an encounter with the support located at 1.6250 after a re-test from below of the broken level of 1.6315.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today and we expect price action to be mostly driven by the technical aspect.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  17. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.18 :The Forex Market: US Interest Rate and Press Conference – a volatility boost

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: Although the German ZEW survey posted a better than expected value yesterday, the US Dollar managed to take the pair lower, showing that the uptrend may be at an end but later in the day the pair rose again, resulting in a mixed trading day.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The first normal target for the pair seems to be 1.3710 which is very close from current price. However, once that level is touched, a potential double bottom will form, which is a bullish chart pattern and has the potential to push price higher. The crucial US events will govern price action today and the technical aspect will be secondary, especially during the New York session.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day will be the US Federal Funds Rate decision, together with the FOMC Statement and the FOMC Economic Projections, scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The Rate is not expected to change from the current 0.25% but the other events are likely to generate volatility, especially the FOMC Press Conference which follows half an hour later. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at this conference and will also answer audience questions which will most likely be related to the Fed stimulus program.

    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index showed a worse than anticipated value, a fact which triggered Pound weakness and the entire day continued on a bearish note, with the pair touching support.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair is at crossroads again, trading very close to the support located at 1.6250, with lower highs and lower lows being printed. This is a characteristic of a down trend but the current level acted as strong support in the past so higher moves are very possible. Either a bounce or a break will determine the next medium term move but all this depends on the important economic events of the day.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 09:30 am GMT the UK Claimant Count is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people looking for unemployment related benefits. The analysts’ forecast is an increase from the previous -41.7K to -35.2K; if this prediction comes true, the Pound may further weaken. At the same time the Bank of England will release the Meeting Minutes containing details of their latest interest rate decision and reasons which generated the members’ votes.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  18. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.20 :Forex News: Finishing the week on a bearish note

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a calm trading day compared to the wild moves generated a day before by Fed’s decision to decrease the monetary stimulus from $85 billion to $75 billion per month, a fact which was perceived as bullish for the US Dollar.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair traded in a narrow 40 pip range almost the entire day, sitting on the support located at 1.3650 after a clear break of 1.3710. Yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues about future direction but the latest momentum belongs to the bears both from a technical and a fundamental point of view and we anticipate a break to the downside of 1.3650.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Producer Price Index is released, showing the change in prices charged by producers compared to the previous months. The indicator has inflationary implications and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro. For today’s release an increase is expected from the previous -0.2% to 0.0%.

    The US Final Gross Domestic Product is announced at 1:30 pm GMT with no change anticipated from the previous 3.6%. This is the economy’s most important performance gauge so higher values indicate increased activity and consequently a stronger greenback.

    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s Retail Sales came out with the expected value and the event didn’t generate strong moves. The pair traveled mostly sideways, above and below 1.6380.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The strong move to the upside experienced Wednesday failed to break the resistance located at 1.6440 and although price pierced through it, a retracement lower soon followed, making things uncertain once again. The US Dollar benefits from the recent monetary stimulus reduction so moves lower are expected, probably a touch of 1.6315 support. To the upside, first resistance is represented by 1.6440.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom will announce the Final Gross Domestic Product at 09:30 am GMT but no change is anticipated from the previous 0.8%; however, better than anticipated values are usually beneficial for the Pound and may take the pair higher. The US Final GDP will directly affect the pair as well.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  19. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.23 :The Forex Market: Sluggish movement as the countdown to Christmas begins

    EUR/USD

    The Forex Market: Friday the Euro managed to make up for some of the losses suffered earlier in the week and the pair touched the resistance located at 1.3710 in what proved to be a day mostly controlled by the bulls.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    After a false break of 1.3650, price rose to touch 1.3710 and at the moment the pair is showing rejection at this level. The latest direction is down so we consider Friday’s rise just a retracement after the sharp fall seen last week. For today, we anticipate another attempt at breaking 1.3650, but also a slow day based on the lack of major economic releases.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 1:30 pm GMT the US Personal Spending indicator is released, showing the change in consumer spending which is a major part of the American economy; the anticipated value is 0.5% compared to the previous 0.3% and usually better numbers strengthen the US Dollar, suggesting a thriving economy.

    GBP/USD

    The pair moved mostly sideways during Friday’s trading session but a sudden move up pierced through the resistance located at 1.6380.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Friday’s move up was quickly reversed and this shows us that lower prices are very probable. But for price to move lower the first barrier located at 1.6315 must be broken; if this will occur today, the door will be open for another attempt at breaking 1.6250 support, but we don’t expect such a move to be completed today. To the upside, the first resistance is located at 1.6380 and it may be revisited before price decides to move to the downside.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic indicators for today so the only influence will come from the US event mentioned earlier and from technical factors.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com
  20. Pas

    Pas Active Member

    2013.12.24 :Forex News: Christmas Eve brings a potentially flat market

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday lacked strong movement or important news releases and as a result, we experienced a slow but bullish day nonetheless.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Price movement was capped yesterday by the resistance located at 1.3710 and support located at 1.3650 and neither bulls nor bears managed to take control and break an important level. We anticipate a rejection lower off the current level and a move towards support but a break above resistance may trigger additional moves to the upside.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today is the busiest day of the week, with two significant economic indicators being released: at 1:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are released and anticipated to increase from the previous 0.4% to 0.9%. Such an increase would indicate improving economic conditions and possibly a stronger greenback. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales come out, with an expected increase from the previous 444K to 449K. Same as for the other indicator, higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar, driving the pair lower.

    GBP/USD

    The pair moved in a narrow range of less than 50 pips, a fact which was expected due to the lack of major economic releases and the approaching of Christmas day.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The sideways movement between 1.6315 support and 1.6380 resistance doesn’t offer any hints about future direction and we can only assume that a break of either level will generate an extended move in that direction. A lot will depend on the US releases scheduled today and price direction will be mostly influenced by their outcome.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom scheduled at 09:30 am GMT the release of the British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals. The indicator offers insights into UK’s housing market because usually a home is purchased with the help of a mortgage. The expected figure is 44.5K, an increase from the previous 42.8K and better than expected numbers normally strengthen the Pound. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the best forex broker.


    YM: gdmfxindonesia@yahoo.com | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
    Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com

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