Forex Trading Analysis by ForexMart

Discussion in 'Diskusi Forex Trading' started by Luis ForexMart, Nov 8, 2016.

  1. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

    The USD/CAD pair exhibited a very weak price action during the previous trading session as there were no fundamental releases which could help in propping up the status of the currency pair. However, the currency pair might be able to redeem itself within the day once the FOMC releases its rate announcement and statement later on, although this could possibly be more of a downward movement for the pair.

    As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair could possibly continue its bearish price action at least until the medium term after the Bank of Canada declared that it will be making adjustments with regards to its overall outlook on the country’s economic and fiscal policies. Moreover, the central bank also hinted at a shift in its outlook with regards to its rates after the BoC decided to resume increasing its interest rates, which is a complete reversal of its current policy of cutting back on its rates. This recent move from the BoC shows the bank’s confidence with regards to the overall state of the Canadian economy. This is also a manifestation of the recent slew of Canadian economic data which all showed a marked improvement within the country’s economy. Although there were some concerns with regards to housing and banking, these were handled almost immediately and has enabled the country’s central bank to maintain its focus on the state of the economy. This has all contributed to the bullish undertone of the Canadian dollar and has caused the CAD to surge in value in spite of a recent drop in oil prices.

    For today’s session, the market will be focusing on the FOMC rate announcement, and a hawkish statement from the Fed could cause the USD/CAD pair to correct towards 1.3300 points, although it is likely that this move would be a mere bounce and the currency pair could resume its downward price action with 1.3100 as its next short-term goal.
  2. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

    The GBP/USD pair was finally able to make some significant headway amidst a highly volatile trading session yesterday after suffering from the adverse effects brought about by the results of the UK snap elections. As the Conservative bloc failed to get the number of majority they initially aimed for, this created uncertainties and risks within the market and has put the cable pair under severe downward pressure.

    But yesterday’s session served as a breather for the GBP/USD pair as uncertainties within the country’s government formation are now starting to get sorted out, thus enabling the cable pair to push past towards 1.2700 points. The talks between the DUP and the Conservatives has so far produced positive results, and it seems now that this alliance will be maintained at least until the Conservatives need to work on several issues, including government formations. One such issue is the looming Brexit talks, with Theresa May staying defiant and believing that she will be able to push through with the Brexit talks in spite of political turmoil and calls for her resignation from her current post as UK Prime Minister. However, May still has to prepare herself as she will possible be faced by several hostile EU leaders who will want to take advantage of May’s position as well as the UK’s current international standing. In addition, Scotland is again on the brink of instigating another independence referendum, and all of these risks are expected to weigh on the sterling pound both in the medium term and long term. down

    For today’s session, the market will be focusing on the Fed’s next move with regards to its planned interest rate hike. If the Fed pushes through with its rate hike, then the market will be looking at the FOMC statement next in order to look for clues with regards to the schedule of the next rate hike. If the statement comes out as bullish, then the dollar could further increase in value and the sterling pound might again drop and could possibly revert to its range lows.
  3. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

    The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the announcement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.

    During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.

    Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.
  4. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 15, 2017

    The USD/CAD pair was expected to exhibit a wild price action during the previous session but it surprisingly became subdued and instead chose to consolidate within a very tight range. This could possibly be caused by the pair’s already very weak price action as it has been consistently dropping in value during the past few days, with the pair’’s traders choosing instead to focus on position shifts, profit-taking, and consolidation instead of taking more risks on the USD/CAD pair. This is why the pair’s whipsawing was still somewhat muted and has enabled the currency pair to remain within a tight trading range.

    However, the currency pair has managed to sink past 1.3200 points and looked to test its support levels at 1.3160 for a short period following a series of disappointing economic readings from the US economy. Both the CPI data and the retail sales data from the US economy disappointed the market and this triggered a widespread dollar selling amid worries that the Fed might rethink its decision and refrain from raising rates until the market throws up some good data. This further pressured the pair to advance towards its support range although it was able to revert later in the evening as the Fed stuck to its original plan and implemented yet another rate hike. This triggered a slew of dollar buys and has helped the USD/CAD pair to shot past 1.3200, where it is currently situated as of the moment. The currency pair could possibly inch back towards 1.3300 points, however the currency pair might stay put at least for the time being since the Canadian economy continues to improve, with the BoC looking into a possible interest rate hike in the near future.

    For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The dominant market trend for today is the effect of the Fed announcement yesterday, which is expected to at least keep the USD/CAD pair in line for a few more days.
    June 15, 2017 USDCAD Fundamental.PNG
  5. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    GBP/NZD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

    The British pound against the New Zealand dollar rebounded in its descending channel resistance as it moves towards the support region. If the base of the support region at 1.7300 handle is sustained, there is a possibility for another retest of the resistance level.

    The stochastic diagrams are demonstrated the market has entered oversold area. This implies that the sellers are weakening and buyers are starting to dominate the trend. There is the least resistance found below as the 200-day Simple Moving Average is above the 100-day Simple Moving Average. The current price trend could initiate a selloff at a steeper price which could follow a break lower.

    Traders are expecting for a hawkish decision from the central bank this week but are still in a better position compared to the British currency that abruptly shifted following a hawkish decision from the Bank of England. Data from the U.K. gave a mixed results although, both the inflation rates and consumer spending send off signal for policymakers to tighten its policy rates to be able to sustain growth.

    Headlines about Brexit talks and the recent speech from the queen somehow gives risk in the financial market especially the concerns in hard Brexit or end it all which would then gives a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this could end up positively which would be favorable for all that brings a bullish sentiment for the pound.
  6. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

    The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar moves sideways within the trading scope between 1.3164 and 1.3308 region. The resistance is found at 1.3308 level for short-term and break out in this level would test the next key resistance level at 1.3350. If the said level at 1.3350 is sustained, then the next move will most likely from 1.3164 as a form of consolidation for a descend from 1.3793.

    A downtrend towards the 1.3050 will most likely happen next, following the consolidation. The short-term support is found at 1.3164 and a breakdown from this mark would hint the extension of the downtrend.
  7. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

    The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday.

    The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market.

    For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition.

    The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.
  8. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    June 19, 2017 NZDUSD Technical.PNG NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

    The New Zealand currency trend upwards amid sessions on Friday, touching the 0.7250 region. The 0.72 area acts as support by which the market would likely move close to 0.73 mark in the longer-term. The pullback has to offer buying opportunities since the Kiwi demonstrated some strength in the past few months. With this, a break on top of 0.73 will then be trailed towards the 0.75 area which is also the longer-term target based on the past analysis.

    The buy on dips is quite suitable to the NZ dollar as long as we remain over the level 0.72 which probably lots of traders planned as well.

    Entering the 0.75 range might take some time, however, there are many buying opportunities within that region. Taking advantage on these small steps towards gain is favorable and establishing a larger position in order to obtain strong returns along with an essential range bound from the FX market in general.

    Ability to breakdown underneath 0.72 region may move lower through 0.70 and this are few of the possible scenarios. A cut through below that point would mean an extremely negative position or may be driving the market near 0.68 handle. There is only roughly a 20% chance that buyers will become active.
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
  9. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

    The sterling pound had increased in a moderate manner amid Friday session, as it grinds through the 1.28 handle. This level apparently offers some resistance, however, the market seems was determined in trying to cut through on top of it. Ability to do so, will enable the market to move over the 1.29 region. Otherwise, a pullback must find another leg close the area 1.27 as this might provide some support during trading on Thursday.

    The Bank of England provided support to the British currency as the bank became more hawkish which favors the GBP in general. When the market break out in the upside, it would touch the 1.3050 region.

    Many long-term speculators have purchase the Great Britain pound and it is not really surprising for the returns that could drive things towards their direction.

    As the year ends, the target will be at the 1.3450 level or even higher. The trend will further ascend when the UK’s government gained clarity about the EU exit.

    New highs of the pound can easily be done when this issue will be cleared combined with higher-than-expected inflation figures. Contrarily, a breakdown under the level 1.2640 would push the market to a lower grounds, down to 1.25 handle.
    June 19, 2017 GBPUSD Technical.PNG
  10. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

    The U.S. dollar surged against the Canadian dollar during Tuesday session. It is mainly due to the decline of the crude oil market. The Loonie is sensitive to the oil market since the currency is commonly used as a proxy in trading. It rebounded significantly in the 1.32 handle which entails volatility in the market.

    A break higher than the 1.33 region would bring this pair higher towards the 1.3450 mark. The crude oil inventory is scheduled to be released today which will certainly bring choppiness in the market and will gather enough momentum to direct in a particular direction.

    The consolidation persists which will only change when there is a significant event in the crude oil market. Hence, there is more risk in the upper channel amid the comments from the Bank of Canada.

    The Canadian market is expecting a hawkish decision from the central bank since the Fed is already in a tightening cycle. The crude oil market will also most likely drop which will be favorable for the pair, especially for long-term.

    The pair is currently training in a narrow range for short-term and it won’t be too long before a breakout happens. If observed, the pair is already in an uptrend for some time as shown in the long-term charts. This is favorable for long-term as more gains will come in the upper channel. Hence, it may not be best to sell this pair for short-term trends.
  11. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

    The EUR/GBP pair is gaining strength as it gapped higher during the Tuesday session. It broke the 0.88 handle although the British currency dropped in general which attracted buyers to join the market. The 0.88 level is being supportive and some pullbacks will open more buying opportunities. After some time, the market would target the 0.8850 region and a breakout from this would imply a bullish tone in the market. Then, they will push the pair towards the 0.90 level. This would be a difficult target to achieve but this will most likely be the results after.

    Traders could take advantage of short-term pullbacks exhibiting support in the trend, as well as the impulsive candles formed in the upper channel. On the other hand, this could also mean weakness of the British currency. Nevertheless, the returns would still be the same.

    Signs of pullbacks could be seen in the channel that has a market value as a whole but a break exceeding the 0.90 level indicates strong bullish tone in the market. This could even push the pair at par level. It may take time before this happens but this is most likely the direction where long-term traders are headed.

    In general, the current breakout could push this pair to move higher in the long run but expect some pullbacks from that region. In any event, the market is directed upwards for long-term which traders should think of before placing a trade. However, traders should be careful when the trend hit the purple levels which are not a good sign.
  12. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

    The British pound against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the early Tuesday session, followed by a decline reaching the 140.50 level below. This is suggestive to become a relevant psychological level. However, sellers are waiting for a technical breakdown as the market fills the gap in the past few weeks.

    The general sentiment of commodities and the stock market should be taken into consideration of the market. If this collapse, this will put a bearish tone in the trend. A breakdown lower than the 140.50 region will give a negative implication as it extends towards the 139 level. Volatility will still persist in the market and start to enter the oversold area in the short-term. Overall, the market is currently in a perilous state and requires patience from traders to gain profit in either direction.

    This pair is sensitive to risk appetite that makes it important for traders to observe the trend in the stock market and commodities. Furthermore, concerns in Brexit will generate more noise to the British currency as a whole, which will have repercussions on the market afterward that should not be neglected. If the pound appreciates, the trend will then be reversed moving to the upper channel.

    However, if the currency falls instead, this further weakens traded against the Japanese yen, being the safety currency. Overall, there will be choppiness in this market and traders could get hints on what will happen next through other financial markets.
  13. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

    It’s been a volatile session for the New Zealand currency on Tuesday amid the rally happened, touching the region 0.7270.

    The market has to keep on searching for some noise in the market while buyers apparently came back which shows that the grind to the upside will resume in the near future. The market is starting to tighten up and should anticipate for an impulsive trend. This market appears to be very difficult to deal with in the short-term, however, you could perform a different move which is to sell.

    After some time, the Kiwi reflects for an impulsive trend which could be difficult to settle funds within the marketplace which contains high risk. Upon getting an important trend, it would be much easy to identify what move should the players will follow.

    The range bound market must be maintained as the level below 0.72 offers the bottom and 0.73 above. A slice over the top area would drive the market to an upwards directions and near 0.75 which is the target in the longer-term

    A gapped underneath 0.72 handle cause the market to trailed downwards reaching 0.70 mark. Otherwise, the market will just go with the low to the extent that the risk tolerance globally is far concerned, specifically the commodity markets.

    Having said that, we should watch closely the general tone of overseas traders along with the very important announcement of New Zealand regarding interest rate statement. In case the result will be hawkish, the market has the tendency to climb upwards.
  14. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    The Australian currency weakens amid Wednesday’s trading, touching the level below 0.7550 eyeing a significant amount of support. A rebound from that point occurred, however, met a massive amount of resistance piercing the region 0.757. Then rolled over to reach the mentioned level. The area below 0.7550 seems to be a supportive level in general, hovering around that region will enable the Aussie dollar to gain much strength.

    On the other hand, the news about possible interest hike of Fed Reserve continues causing the market to have high volatility.

    In the long-term, gold has greatly influenced the commodity currency as it resumes to search for buyers.

    A break out in the upside would test the 0.7625 mark and a cut through on top of it will aim for the next target at 0.77 range, en route 0.7750.

    It will take some time to reach the higher point of 0.0 level which is considered the main region for the longer-term charts. With that, a massive amount of volatility is expected and yet the choppiness still surrounds the market but in a positive way.
  15. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    The GBPUSD is trading sideways throughout Wednesday’s session, however, eyes a significant support at the 1.26 region and reports said that a word from one of the BoE members thought that the rates of interest will increase exceeding the projected figures.

    With this, it is preferred for the market to keep on moving near the upside, but when a breakdown occurred beneath the 1.26 handle, the market will eventually enter the 1.25 region.

    Otherwise, the appearance of an impulsive candle would mean that it is okay to go near the top of 1.28 mark which is a range broken to the upside. This is the exact thing that 1.2975 handle needs.

    The market may experience some volatility due to news releases that affect the British currency, particularly those headlines from London and Brussels that might cause havoc. Considering this situation, it would be complicated to put on a lot of funds in a single shot hence it is suggested to trade slowly even when things goes along within your favor.

    On one side, there is a tendency to maintain a position on the sidelines because the sterling pound is expected to be one of the most volatile currency in the world of Forex trading for the next month since concerns about Brexit talks are still ongoing.
  16. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    The EURUSD was almost steady during the trading session on Wednesday as it trades in a narrow range while prices continued to generate a topping formation. The U.S. Existing Home Sales came in stronger than anticipated results which helped the greens to climb higher.

    The Fed Reserve is in a hawkish mood while the President of Fed in Chicago, Charles Evans aided the dollar to bolster.

    Moreover, the pair had declined in the trend line support, however, rebounded from the intra-day lows and stayed around the resistance region which was the previous support that lied close the ascending slope found at the level 1.1200.

    The target for support can be found at 1.0853 region which is near the May lows. The topping candlestick pattern formed by price appeared to be a little version of head and shoulder reversal pattern.

    The momentum still sits in the negative territory while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram that prints in the red along the downward sloping direction which further leads to a lower exchange rate.
  17. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    High volatility resides in trading the New Zealand dollar during the Wednesday session as it declined in the beginning but rebounded later on enough to recover losses. However, it will decline again once retested. There will be choppiness in the market and traders should expect a lot of noise in the trend going in either direction. The 0.72 level remains to be supportive and it won’t take long before buyers return in the again.

    Buying this pair is not bad although expect there will be lesser returns in the current situation compare to other pairs in the market. Traders could try other markets that offer more opportunities although the long-term impulsiveness indication should not be forgotten which is essential to gain more profit.

    The commodity market will have an impact on the New Zealand dollar for the long-term course and traders next target will be 0.73 level and higher. A break in the said level could send the price higher towards the 0.75 handle.

    In general, a breakdown lower than the 0.72 level would be a negative sign that could further bring the price down towards the 0.70 region. Given some time, an impulsive candle can be formed on the daily chart which will be a significant move as it gives hint in gaining profit in this pair. Traders might have a difficult time in trading this pair for now, but when the trend shifts and the impulsive candle forms, the next move will most likely be spontaneous.
  18. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    There is an upside bias in the USD/CAD pair for the day. It broke higher than the 1.33 level while the market moves towards the upper channel pushed by the downward pressure in the crude oil market. It seems that the crude oil market will have a difficult time due to the different events that still show negative outlook.

    Overall, the downtrend will persist as the shale oil are shed out at large amounts in the market. The market will continue to reach towards the 1.34 handle then towards the 1.35 level above. The U.S. dollar has been in the uptrend for a long time and it will most likely sustain its strong stance not only because of the appreciation in value but also because of the interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve aside from the crude oil market.

    The long-term chart was also seen to reach lower levels which is positive indication despite the choppiness in the market, the trend will remain in an upward direction. It may not be best to short this pair until the marker is able to break lower than the 1.32 level which could take longer to happen in a short-term.

    Overall, the volatility in the market is mainly due to the strengthening of the U.S. economy and not solely because of the crude oil market. However, traders should be cautious of the current market condition as the uptrend will persist for some time but it would be smart also to act bullish at the same time. It is advisable to bet on more trades as the trend continues to go up and clear every handle as the market continues to move forward.
  19. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 22, 2017

    During the Wednesday session, the USD/JPY pair dropped although it attained the 111.75 region since there is sufficient buying pressure from traders. Currently, the market is trying to bring the price down amid high volatility the being uncertainty in the market. Eventually, it is anticipated to reach the 112 level or up to 112.50 level later on.

    The interest rate differential will still favor the U.S. dollar since the Federal Reserve will most likely implement its rate hike prior to the Bank of Japan. Hence, this will put the pair in a bullish tone although it might need to pull back until there is enough value to gain from going long in this pair. In the meantime, the 111 level below continues to supportive.

    In long-term, there is a high chance for the pair to be directed upward and reach the 115 region in the next few months. There is a massive floor seen at 110 level below and in times of pullbacks, it will be more appealing for buyers to jump in the market.

    A selloff is highly probable to happen for the Japanese yen when the stock market surges which will also influence the pair and other yen related pairs to move higher. Also, the U.S. dollars will benefit from the U.S. stock market as it performs a notch better than others and the current interest rate outlook of Fed in the next years to come.
  20. Luis ForexMart

    Luis ForexMart New Member

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 23, 2017

    The Australian dollar pair had a choppy trading session on Thursday as it lingers around the 0.7550 region. In general, there will be volatility in the market for short-term that makes it more difficult to put in money. If the pair breaks higher than the 0.7560 level, the market will proceed to move up towards the 0.76 mark.

    A massive support is found underneath and there will be more buyers found if given enough time. It might be best to wait for a sudden turnaround of the gold market to change the current sentiment and turn into a bullish pressure to reverse the current trend.

    If the pair breaks lower than the 0.75 level, the market could further decline possibly towards the 0.73 region. Expect buyers to dominate the market with a choppy downward nature of the trend.

    The latest GDP of Australia has surpassed expectations as it came in stronger which affects the mindset of traders. As a buyer, a formation of the impulsive candle is needed to turn bullishness into an advantage. Hence, it is wise to wait on the sidelines and see what the market dictates before buying the pair.

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